Friday, December 31, 2010

Happy 2011 - The year of South Sudan

In 2011, the Year of South Sudan, the geo-political heart of Africa, you should welcome the 54th State of Africa - The Republic of South Sudan (Or Azania). It is a normalcy bias: Uganda's 2011 national elections and South Sudan's 2011 self determination referendum 2011.

Greetings from now in South Sudan: With a referendum slated for early January 9, 2011, the Khartoum government will roar, and throw tantrums and some bombs, create chaos here and there, but a full blown out war is not desirable to even the most fool hardy fanatic in that regime. An assurance is that the peripheries of Sudan - South Sudan, Darfur, Nuba Mountains, Blue Nile, the Eastern Bank and all opposition to the current Khartoum regime could all gang up against the centre. The international economic community will also not tolerate the war. Times are hard. Khartoum will not want to provoke furies.

South Sudan's rear guard: Uganda. In national elections. Conditions obtainable in the field will not favour a regime change, the leadership and presidency of Uganda for the timing. Add it that Uganda's democracy is still nascent. There, it is is a "demoNcracy". If need be, a win for the incumbent will be "democracKed".

He shall win because he is Museveni, the man, the politician, the strategist, the in-charge of Uganda's state machinery, regional linchpin, East Africa's longest serving president, and thoroughly entrenched in the socio-economic politic military fabrics of Uganda, tested and proven executive of a geo-strategically located international operations base.

Given Somalia, the Nile Basin, and South Sudan's potent crisis, Museveni's involvement and with the "international community" in Sub-Saharan Africa and the fact that Museveni is a note able continental voice and therefore one of the continent's strategists, he remains very relevant to the local, regional, international and politico-military interventions in Sub Sharan Africa.

To pull extra ordinary electioneering victory in Uganda, where Sudan had a chance in Dr. John Garang, only appeals that transcend party affiliations like politics, religion, and tribalism must be translated into into economic and fair competitiveness national campaign strategies in order to change leadership in Uganda. Museveni will therefore win because the opposition lack the acumen to pull off an extraordinary victory. Atleast it seems to be the case in their current campaigns. It is a fashion show for alternative opposition leaders - Norbert Mao and Ms Betty Kamya.

Current so called electioneering and democracy in Uganda is what I will call "DEMONCRACY". If need be, M7 will "democrack" a win. For all the ills that could follow, here is good news: the international community can not allow an Ivory Coast nor a Kenya situation in Uganda. Not in the year 2011 - the Year of South Sudan, the geo-political heart of Africa.

With other people's opinions very alarmist, and pessimist we should take the due caution: Also, brace for uncertainty. Take care. It is only Eight (08) days to South Sudan's referendum. Her independence can only be declared on or after 9 July 2011. I wish you a Happy New Year.

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