Friday, December 31, 2010

Happy 2011 - The year of South Sudan

In 2011, the Year of South Sudan, the geo-political heart of Africa, you should welcome the 54th State of Africa - The Republic of South Sudan (Or Azania). It is a normalcy bias: Uganda's 2011 national elections and South Sudan's 2011 self determination referendum 2011.

Greetings from now in South Sudan: With a referendum slated for early January 9, 2011, the Khartoum government will roar, and throw tantrums and some bombs, create chaos here and there, but a full blown out war is not desirable to even the most fool hardy fanatic in that regime. An assurance is that the peripheries of Sudan - South Sudan, Darfur, Nuba Mountains, Blue Nile, the Eastern Bank and all opposition to the current Khartoum regime could all gang up against the centre. The international economic community will also not tolerate the war. Times are hard. Khartoum will not want to provoke furies.

South Sudan's rear guard: Uganda. In national elections. Conditions obtainable in the field will not favour a regime change, the leadership and presidency of Uganda for the timing. Add it that Uganda's democracy is still nascent. There, it is is a "demoNcracy". If need be, a win for the incumbent will be "democracKed".

He shall win because he is Museveni, the man, the politician, the strategist, the in-charge of Uganda's state machinery, regional linchpin, East Africa's longest serving president, and thoroughly entrenched in the socio-economic politic military fabrics of Uganda, tested and proven executive of a geo-strategically located international operations base.

Given Somalia, the Nile Basin, and South Sudan's potent crisis, Museveni's involvement and with the "international community" in Sub-Saharan Africa and the fact that Museveni is a note able continental voice and therefore one of the continent's strategists, he remains very relevant to the local, regional, international and politico-military interventions in Sub Sharan Africa.

To pull extra ordinary electioneering victory in Uganda, where Sudan had a chance in Dr. John Garang, only appeals that transcend party affiliations like politics, religion, and tribalism must be translated into into economic and fair competitiveness national campaign strategies in order to change leadership in Uganda. Museveni will therefore win because the opposition lack the acumen to pull off an extraordinary victory. Atleast it seems to be the case in their current campaigns. It is a fashion show for alternative opposition leaders - Norbert Mao and Ms Betty Kamya.

Current so called electioneering and democracy in Uganda is what I will call "DEMONCRACY". If need be, M7 will "democrack" a win. For all the ills that could follow, here is good news: the international community can not allow an Ivory Coast nor a Kenya situation in Uganda. Not in the year 2011 - the Year of South Sudan, the geo-political heart of Africa.

With other people's opinions very alarmist, and pessimist we should take the due caution: Also, brace for uncertainty. Take care. It is only Eight (08) days to South Sudan's referendum. Her independence can only be declared on or after 9 July 2011. I wish you a Happy New Year.

Monday, December 06, 2010

Long live Sudanese Monkeys

Monkey Tap. Monkey Do. As the [quality of] tax-funded educational system declines, computer software improves. Credit Gary North. Opinion is that much as South Sudan wants its "independence" be mindful that the world over also wants a lasting solution to a Sudan lying geo-economically strategic but so wasteful in the heart of Africa.

With 33 days to South Sudan's much dreaded referendum, Sudan's politics is playing out to be well programmed software. Weird developments are happening in Dinka Ngok's Abeyei area. For some reasons, the Misiriya are pressing so that they part takes of a South Sudanese only referendum. And in an attempt to ruin a triumphalist's independence vote, the Misiriya have formed their own government in the Dinka Ngok's territories - in another's man's bedroom. Monkey Do. Monkey taps a trigger!

Apes will be able to achieve the impossible including dragging sane nations to war. A diplomatically trimmed Field Marshal who can't be in Tripoli has rubbished a Darfurian rebel commander, a centre clinging and holding partner. Things might fall apart more than a software could understand. And while "Wikileaks" has confirmed that Egypt dreads an independent South Sudan, South Sudan's vote for independence is no longer being doubted. The counting down is rushing. Oil! Greed will be the motivation for raging monkeys. The triggers are being orchestrated. A nuisance center might not hold for too long.

A composite reality comprising geo-racial, Afro-Arab politics, religion, economics and involving oil is one of grand interests, and a local alliance against a common notoriety. Doubt you what another monkey would do as the triggers get a prominence? I am resigning and will not be evacuating come East Africa 2011.